Too much handicapping

Published by Lucky Dog under Horse Racing.

It seems like the more time I spend handicapping a race, the less likely I am to win any of the wagers I place on that race. Lately, it seems like more long shots are coming in and ruining all of the research that I’ve done. The fastest horse with the best record and best jockey may win the race, but that horse is generally going to have the lowest odds, so you are not going to make any money if you pick him to win. So, you have to be thinking outside of the handicapping box. It seems like hindsight is 20/20 when it comes to picking horses. When the race is over, it all seems to make more sense. One example was a recent race where I left the number one horse out of my picks because they did poorly during the last three races. Well, if I had been thinking clearly rather than going by the numbers, I would have realized that they had been running this horse on dirt. This horse runs better on turf, especially in the number one position near the rail. Sure enough, this horse took off in the lead along the rail and never looked back. Sometimes you need to just ignore the handicapping numbers, and go with your instincts, when everyone else is picking the favorites. It’s not easy to do, but when go against the numbers and get it right, it will be much more rewarding.

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