The 2024 Kentucky Derby prep racing season is in full swing. So far, I’ve had minor success trying to build up my wagering bankroll. Last week I cashed a win bet and a trifecta in the Risen Star Stakes. Again, this year I have been focusing on pick 4’s. So far, I have won 2 out of 10 for a total of $85.15. Of the 8 losing tickets, I only lost by one race on three of them. Most of the time, I didn’t pick the winner because of some bias that didn’t hold true. With multi-race wagers sometimes, you can be your own worst enemy. Other times your horse just ends up getting a bad trip.
My strategy has been to try and find a single in one of the legs. This allows me to go deeper in the other three legs. They say that the favorite only wins 30% of the time. So, if I’m trying to pick the winner in 4 races, odds are a favorite is going to win one of the 4 races. The problem is that the morning line favorite is not always the favorite by the time they enter the gate. It ultimately comes down to what handicapping information you think is most important and what criteria you use for making your selections. In one situation, I left a horse out because of a bias I have against horses that have mainly run at Woodbine (Canada) and are now racing at a track in Florida. In another case, I left a horse out because they had taken a long break from racing, even though they had a good jockey and considerably more class than the rest of the field.
The lesson is that you need to question your own beliefs when something stands out to you. Don’t be so quick to toss a horse trying new things or coming back from a long break. That doesn’t always mean the horse isn’t going to improve enough to beat the others. Once you know the reasons why horse players overlook a horse, you can sometimes use this to your advantage. Something as simple as looking at the workouts and equipment changes can tell you if a trainer has a high odds horse ready to go.