For this year’s Kentucky Derby I had high hopes of picking the winner for the second year in a row. I was getting a daily workout report from Equibase, so I decided to track the time figures for the contenders. I also wrote down the speed figures for the last three races, how they finished, and what grade each race was. My top 3 picks were Journalism, Burnham Square, and Sandman. I also had Sovereignty listed as a top contender, but didn’t think his stats were as good as Sandman’s.
The track condition was muddy as it is almost every other year for the race. As the horses were walking by in the paddock, I saw that Sovereignty’s impressive size would be an advantage over the others. Sandman looked like a lean youngster compared to Sovereignty’s imposing girth. But, like they say, “Bet a grey on a rainy day”. It was too late for me to change my wagers anyway. I was alive to the Oaks/Derby double and the pick 3 with Journalism and Sandman. Sovereignty was under Journalism in my trifecta, and I had several long shot win bets, plus a Journalism/Baeza boxed exact.
Sovereignty finished first, followed by Journalism and Baeza. Sandman ended up finishing 7th behind Burnham Square. Somehow, once again they managed to turn all of my wagers into losses. That was a lot of time wasted tracking stats on all of the contenders. It especially hurts when you have two multi-race wagers that lose in the last leg. This is how my whole year has been going, so I’m not really surprised. I just don’t have the money right now to cover all of the potential outcomes. With minimal coverage, I feel like I’m wasting time and money and relying too much on luck.