On July 1st, 2023, I played a pick 4 on the last 4 races at Ellis Park. Normally I don’t bet on Ellis Park races, but on this day, they were hosting the grade 1 Steven Foster stakes. This was an all-stakes pick 4 on races 8, 9, 10, 11. Race 8 was a 3-horse race with the favorite “A Mo Reay” against “Pauline’s Pearl” and “Bellamore”. I had “A Mo Reay” and “Pauline’s Pearl” to win. “Pauline’s Pearl” passed the two leading horses in the stretch for the win. In the next race I had the two top horses “Set Piece” and “Get Smokin”. Get Smokin led the race from the start with the late running “Set Piece” far behind.
As the horses reached the stretch, Get Smokin was still in the lead by about a length. Then out of the nowhere, “Stitched” at 46 to 1, ridden by Flavien Prat, took over the lead and won by a neck. In most cases I would have had Flavien Prat in my pick 4, but this was a last-minute rider change on a horse who had won his last race a year ago at Canterbury Park. And that race was a non-graded race. The race at Ellis Park was a grade 2 stakes race. I was aware of the rider change and briefly considered placing a win bet. But, after looking at the past performances compared to the other runners, I decided against it. In hindsight, it would have been worth the risk to put a wager on Flavien Prat with a horse running from the outside in a 10-horse turf race.
I ended up winning the next two races in my pick 4. That made it all the more disappointing that I had not acted on the opportunity to go with a long shot ridden by Prat. A $2 win bet on “Stitched” paid $94.50 and the pick 4 payout was $738.44. Another pick 4 with only 3 out of 4 correct. Wagering more money on the pick 4 would not have helped, when you have decided, for whatever reason, to not include a horse. It always takes me a few days to get over a beat like that. Hopefully next time things I will go in my favor.