As a horse player you need to set limits on your wagers. Having switched to playing more pick 4’s this year, it is often a challenge to keep wagers within my $18 limit. There are only 2 combinations that add up to an $18 wager. They are 3/3/2/2 and 4/3/3/1. The numbers represent how many picks you have in each race. Trying to force a combination onto a sequence can led to some difficult decisions. It’s not too often that you can find a single in one of the races and coming up with 2 picks in two races can be just as difficult.
Lately, I find myself making my selections and if I can’t narrow it down to one of the two combinations that are within my budget, I don’t place a wager. I then go back later and analyze the results to see if adding another horse to the mix would have made a difference. Often it does make a difference, especially on the races that I find difficult to handicap. Using a 3/3/3/2 combination would cost $27 and a 4/3/3/2 would cost $36. The next logical level above my $18 limit would be 4/3/2/2 or 4/4/3/1 for $24. Finding a race to single is good for the budget, but also very risky.
One of my pick 4 wagering rules is to always pick at least 3 horses in the first race. Even if you lose in one of the next three races, it doesn’t feel as bad as losing in the first race. More often than not, when I pick less than 3 horses in the first race, I always lose. An example would be the late pick 4 this past Sunday at Santa Anita. I went with a 2/3/3/2 combination but didn’t place the wager because I had concerns about the last race which was a maiden special weight. It turns out that I needed my 3rd pick in the first race because I had the next three races correct. It would have added $9 to the cost of the wager. But the $659.55 payout would have been worth it. There is a good chance I would have added the extra pick to the last race, unless of course I was following my first race wagering rule.