This year’s Kentucky Derby looks like another good handicapping challenge. I’ve watched all of the prep-races and have narrowed the field down to my top selections. Todd Pletcher has 3 and Brad Cox has 4 entries:
- Forte (190 pts, EQ106) – Irad Ortiz Jr., Todd Pletcher
- Tapit Trice (150 pts, EQ103) – Luis Saez, Todd Pletcher
- Kingsbarns (100 pts, EQ100) – Jose Ortiz, Todd Pletcher
- Angel of Empire (154 pts, EQ106) – Flavien Prat, Brad Cox
- Hit Show (60 pts, EQ99) – Manny Franco, Brad Cox
- Verifying (54 pts, EQ102) – Tyler Gaffalione, Brad Cox
- Jace’s Road (45 pts, EQ101) – Florent Geroux, Brad Cox
Other trainers that have horses with over 100 Derby prep points are:
- Practical Move (160 pts, EQ108) – Ramon Vazquez, Tim Yakteen
- Two Phil’s (123 pts, EQ97) – Jareth Loveberry, Larry Rivelli
- Lord Miles (105 pts, EQ100) – Paco Lopez, Saffie Joseph Jr.
- Derma Sotogake (100 pts, JPN) – Christophe Lemaire, Hidetaka Otonashi
This will be Ramone Vazquez’s 2nd appearance in the Derby riding Practical Move. Tim Yakteen also has Reincarnate ridden by John Velazquez who has 3 previous Derby victories. Out of these three groups my top 4 horses would be: Forte, Tapit Trice, Angel of Empire, and Practical Move. I would also consider using horses in exotic wagers with Derby experienced jockeys: Kingsbarns, Reincarnate, Verifying, Mage, and Disarm. It would be a great story if Jareth Loveberry wins in his first Derby riding Two Phil’s, but I think that might be too much to ask. The other wildcard in the race is the horse from Japan, Derma Sotogake. Jockey Lemaire returns for the second year in a row after piloting Japan’s Crown Pride to a 13th-place finish in 2022. I expect that he will improve his finishing position this time around.
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