This past Wednesday TVG had one of their pick 4 bonus promos at Gulfstream Park. My pick 4 wager hinged on a single in the 8th race. Munnys Gold is a 3-year-old Female trained by Todd Pletcher who had won her first race by 14 lengths. I was concerned about the 223-day layoff and the length of the first race being 1 furlong shorter. But with Irad Ortiz riding and the 14-length margin, I felt comfortable with my single pick.
This time I was able to watch each race. The first race had several scratches and was down to 5 horses. The winner didn’t have the strongest rating on my spreadsheet, but had jockey Louis Saez, who was the best rider in the race. When everything looks fairly equal, you have to go with the best jockey. The second race was won by Irad Ortiz who was carrying 4 pounds more weight than the previous race but was running a shorter distance. Irad went on to win the third race on Munnys Gold by 6 lengths. This horse will be one to watch in future races.
The last race in the pick 4 had eight horses. I picked 3 horses who had the highest speed and best average finishes in their last three races. It was a close race with two of my picks in the top 3. Miguel Vasquez come in first on Dontmesswithtess, which was the best price outcome for my pick 4. Because of the low 1/9 odds on Munnys Gold in the previous race, the payout was only $46.35. The pick 4 promo was $8.36, which means that 299 people on TVG hit the pick 4 that day. The pick 4 pool was $227,743. So, a total of 3930 players won the pick 4. It isn’t often that I hit the pick 4 at a track two weeks in a row. My new spreadsheet macro seems to be helping. Maybe it just forces me to put in the work required to be more successful at picking winners.