Claiming races can be some of the hardest horse races to handicap. Many times, the horses all have very similar records. The claiming race will have entry rules like “Three Year Olds, and Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races.” or “Three Year Olds, and Upward Which Have Never Won Three Races.” The horses may have run well 3 or 4 races back, but for whatever reason, they have been struggling in their more recent efforts. This can happen when a horse moves up in class too quickly. After a few losing efforts, they get moved back to a level where they will hopefully be more competitive.
If you look back at their past performances, and check the purse money for each race, the purse of the race they are running in now will be similar to the purse that resulted in a good finish in the past. You also have to consider the time between races. As a general rule, horses in good condition only race every 3 or 4 weeks. If you see a horse dropping in class to a claiming race after only 2 weeks, that may be too soon. The best horses to consider are those who are dropping in class to a shorter distance with more than 4 weeks since their last race. The extra rest plus the class drop can make a big difference. Also look for horses that are with a new trainer and running back at a distance or surface that was good for them in the past.
Maiden and maiden claiming races are races that I try to avoid. But sometimes you will find one in a multi-race wager. This type of race often has first time starters and horses who have run at different distances and surfaces as the trainer and owner try to figure out what works and what doesn’t. If all things are equal, speed figures, distances, finish history, and class, the jockey can often be the deciding factor. Look for a jockey who is carrying less weight. The weight of the rider is listed in stats for the race. Typically, you will see weights between 118-124 lbs. Look for the lowest weight. Apprentice jockeys sometimes have weight as low as 113 lbs.
You also have to make sure the trainer has a good record. The horse also needs have good pace figures. Betting on an apprentice jockey because of the weight relief alone isn’t a good idea. On Aug 27 the 2nd race at Del Mar was a maiden claiming race. Emily Ellingwood was riding Warrens World trained by Craig Lewis. The weight was 113 lbs and the odds were 10 to 1. The horse had finished 5th at 5 furlongs and 7th at 1 mile in the previous two races. I saw that Warrens World had some good pace and knew that Emily would go right to the lead. The distance of 5 1/2 furlongs would make it hard for anyone to catch her and I was right. My single $3 win bet paid $33.90.