Finding Longshots

Published by Lucky Dog under Horse Racing.

Lately I’ve been having some success betting against the favorites. Most of the time I only have to bet against myself. After I pick the top 3 horses to put in my trifecta wager, it’s usually the one that I decided to ignore that ends up winning the race. So, I’ve started placing a win bet on that underdog horse. More often than not, that is the horse that wins the race, and they usually have odds of between 10 and 25 to 1. In past races, I remember many times when I saw a longshot win and I didn’t have a win bet on the horse. Now, I don’t hesitate to put at least $2 on the horse that everyone is overlooking. The last example of this was on July 4 during the 12th race at Monmouth Park. My trifecta was 1,5,6. But, I had a feeling that the #2 horse at 10 to 1 had the potential to win. The jockey was Jomar Torres and the horse was Grey Charlotte. Jomar had won the 9th race and Grey Charlotte had been putting up consistent speed figures in her last three races. As the horses were coming down the stretch, my 1,5,6 trifecta looked good, but the #2 horse passed them all and I collected $33 on my $3 win bet. That was enough to cover my previous losing wagers for the day. The only tools I used to handicap the race were Equibase and the TVG app. I usually put my wager in just a few minutes before the start of the race and listen to the comments from the TVG announcers. In this case, none of them had picked Grey Charlotte. I find that it isn’t too often that they will pick a longshot. If one of them does, the other announcers will ask them to make a case for why they think the horse will win. In the end, you have to use your own judgement. It is always more satisfying to pick a winner that everyone else has overlooked.

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